"Today we can see change for the worse all over the globe. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. RELATED: It will be bloody: Threat to China. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. It has just about every contingency covered. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. But it took four vulnerable tanker aircraft to carry them over that 6000km round trip. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. It isn't Ukraine. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. However, without the strong protection of the Australian forces, the world will be in peril from an unrestrained Emu army. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. "To the extent that China's strategy is informed by Sun Tzu, it would have a strong preference for a short, sharp war. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. The geographic focus is decisive. And Beijing has the advantage of geography. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. It may be possible for the US to operate from bases in northern Australia, though whether overflight rights would be granted by Indonesia is unlikely. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. Australias Air Warfare Destroyers pack just 42. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. China is aware of this gap. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. And heres our email: [email protected]. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. Chinas military build-up is making a difference. Stavros Atlamazoglou. Some wouldn't survive. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to . China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. No other country on the planet, save New Zealand, is better placed from a purely defensive perspective. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. Its army is now deploying troops to Africa for peacekeeping missions that give first-hand experience in conflict zones after decades of relative peace. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australias Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. US forces would be fully committed to the maximum of their capacity, and they would expect and indeed demand the same of us.. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. "The defence of Taiwan is predicated on a Chinese invasion but if China's main effort is not an invasion but a blockade, then what? Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. US soldiers, some seen here at a military exercise in Morocco earlier in June, have been deployed to battles across the world for the past 50 years. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. Please try again later. "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. The US believes China has about 2000 mid-range missiles in place, which could ward off the US Navy in a conflict. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. The US must operate from a few exposed facilities such as Okinawa and Guam. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . Critical assets such as radars and airfields will immediately be targeted. We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. Beyond 10 years, who knows? While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. "Melissa Conley Tyler and I (and others) have dealt with the Taiwan question in our joint paper. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. It depends how it starts China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. Beijing has already put its assets in place. Were working to restore it. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. All it would take is one wrong move. But this will take time. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. Who has a better and stronger military, navy, air force, etc? At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. Such possibilities seem remote at present. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? The attrition model appears to be deeply ingrained in the US approach to land warfare. No doubt Australian passions would run high. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? After multiple clashes between Australia's regional partners and China, tensions are rising. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Should US tensions with China flare into a war there is no question that these days Washington would put enormous pressure on Albanese, or any future leader, to join them in that conflict. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. The structure of the military is also different. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. What would war with China look like for Australia? Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. "Given the rate at which the Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035. "So, how would China prosecute the war? The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. But will it be safer for women? This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. If the US went to war with China, who would win? In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins.